Oireachtas Joint and Select Committees

Tuesday, 26 September 2017

Joint Oireachtas Committee on Finance, Public Expenditure and Reform, and Taoiseach

Banking Sector in Ireland (Resumed): Allied Irish Banks

4:00 pm

Mr. Bernard Byrne:

In thinking about any of these, I try to factor in all of the available points. If it is helpful to say I am concerned, I am concerned about thinking about all of those aspects. The position right now that I get to, however, is a net position when those things are factored in, based on the information we have and our assessment of where the economy is, what the likely growth in the economic position can be, what is happening from a demographic point of view and what is happening from an investment and inward investment point of view. If those pillars are removed, the risk profile changes and the position needs to be considered in that context. My thoughts and the bank's thoughts on it at this point in time are that the position is a balanced position, factoring in the conditions that exist in the market. Obviously, as an institution we test, which is our first obligation, our position relative to stresses that can emerge. We look at events that could take those things away, to ensure that the bank is in a position where it can support and sustain that position.

That is something we do, but our base case scenario assumes that we are in a position where this market continues as it is projecting at this point in time. We accept the fact that there are risks. Many of the risks are external to the market place and beyond the control of the market and therefore the levels of capital we carry and our overall perspective on what risk we can take factors that in.