Oireachtas Joint and Select Committees

Wednesday, 5 April 2017

Committee on Budgetary Oversight

Engagement on Overall Fiscal Position: Discussion

2:00 pm

Mr. John McCarthy:

With regard to GDP in an Irish context, the information content is quite limited. It is highly distorted by the multinational companies, the globalisation process and issues that are evolving over time such as so-called contract manufacturing and so forth, which is production that takes place elsewhere but from a statistical perspective is included in the Irish accounts.

The figures are compiled to the highest European and worldwide standards. However, they must be treated with a certain health warning in an Irish context because of the multinationals. To give the Deputy an example, approximately five or six firms account for approximately one third of exports. If something happens in one quarter and it happens on the first day of the next quarter it can raise huge issues.

There is no doubt that we took a bit of a reputational hit on foot of the 26% growth figure. The 26% figure was compiled to the highest standard but it was due to the operations of a very small number of firms. The so-called expert group, which was chaired by the Governor of the Central Bank, has come up with a new indicator which will take out some of these multinational practices. The retained earnings of redomiciled firms and the depreciation of the capital stock owned by foreign firms will be excluded.

This measure will give a better indicator as to the level of living standards in Ireland and the Central Statistics Office, CSO, has also committed to publishing indicators that exclude some of the more volatile components of investment, exports and so forth in order that we and others who look at these issues can get a better handle on where the economy is in the cycle.