Oireachtas Joint and Select Committees

Wednesday, 8 March 2017

Committee on Budgetary Oversight

Developments in the National Debt: National Treasury Management Agency

2:00 pm

Mr. Conor O'Kelly:

It is difficult to gauge what the market reaction would be to anything. The market buys and owns Irish bonds based on the expectation of forecasts of economic activity and growth, statements of Government policy and the likelihood of X, Y or Z happening. Many investors consider Ireland's net debt position. They look at its gross debt and assets, including its holdings in the banks. They subtract them and arrive at a net debt position which they analyse vis-à-viscounterparties in any credit decision. The credit agencies are the same, in that net debt is one of the metrics they consider. People have subtracted the banks' holdings in arriving at the net debt figure. Since the degree to which investors are dependent on this for their decisions to invest in Ireland varies widely, it is difficult to say one way or the other. They do not all speak with one voice. However, a material deviation would have negative implications for Irish credit yields and credit spreads, but I would have no way of quantifying it.