Oireachtas Joint and Select Committees

Tuesday, 28 February 2017

Committee on Budgetary Oversight

Report on the Revised Macroeconomic Indicators: Discussion

4:00 pm

Mr. Pádraig Dalton:

The Statistics Act is not a barrier to the work the CSO does. What we were trying to identify here was the balance between confidentiality and provision of detailed information. The trust that respondents have in us has a direct impact on the quality of the data that we compile. For example, in April, when the members filled out their census forms, they did so because of the guarantee of confidentiality that the CSO gave them. When they were filling out that form, they knew that the data they were giving to the CSO was going to be safe and secure. That same guarantee of confidentiality has to exist for our business surveys as well and particularly for all of the enterprises or entities who respond to us. Due to the impact of a relatively small number of multinational enterprises in our statistics, sometimes when we produce aggregate data we cannot publish it because it would be disclosive and therefore it would be a breach of official statistics. If we publish data that leads to the identification of an individual company or entity, the likelihood of them providing us with data in the future is significantly reduced, just as if I breached members' confidentiality with a census form, I am sure they would be very slow to respond to us the next time around. Maintaining that trust of respondents is critical, not just to the CSO but to any national statistical institute.

On the value of the data, someone mentioned the soundbite of some years ago, but it does not capture the complexity of the issue. What gave rise to the figures in 2016, was that there was a relocation of entire balance sheets containing intellectual property rights back into Ireland. The soundbite suggested that did not happen and it was not real. It did happen and it was real and it was the consequential knock-on effect on how we had to treat the associated contract manufacturing in the statistics. It is unfortunate in one sense that it gives the suggestion that those events did not happen. From a statistical and from an economic perspective, Ireland is quite unique. We are an extremely open and highly globalised economy, probably one of the most globalised economies in the world. The figures we compiled last year accurately captured what happened and the comment from the IMF when we met them in Washington was the national accounts framework did its job.

The national accounts framework produced official statistics that clearly highlighted the hugely globalised nature of the Irish economy. That was really important; the job of official statisticians is to shine a light on issues that are relevant to the State. In doing so, the problem was that it made it very difficult for commentators and analysts nationally to get a sense of what was happening in the underlying economy domestically and that is why we engaged the users and, in particular, we set up the Economic Statistics Review Group, because we felt it was important. Users were telling us that they wanted more and better information to give them an insight into what is happening in the domestic economy, to net out the globalisation effects. That is really important for national policy perspectives and for monitoring the sustainability of debt and so on.

The group chaired by Professor Lane has come up with a suite of recommendations that the CSO will now implement. We have been doing a lot of work over the last four or five years on this and we have already published a broader suite of publications. We have an annual report on the multinational enterprise sector vis-à-vis the domestic sector and we have done specific publications on aircraft leasing which have an impact on the national accounts.

We have done an increasing amount of work on labour and capital-based productivity. We have also put together specific statistics on the re-domiciled plcs issue and how that impacts on the Irish national accounts. What the economic statistics review group does is provides a more formal framework to pull together a broader suite of relevant indicators. These are relevant in the sense that they give better insight into what is happening in the domestic economy. That is what we are trying to do and that is what we have to continue to do. Legally, we have to continue to produce GDP and GNP figures in accordance with international standards. That is a legal requirement for Ireland Inc. in the same way as it is a legal requirement for all EU member states but we will also now produce a broader range of indicators that help domestic policymakers and people such as Professor Lane who need that data to get a better sense of what is happening in the domestic economy.