Dr. Eimear Cotter:

I thank the committee for the questions. With regard to modelling, we run a major exercise every year to look at what our energy demand is going to be into the future. At the moment this is out to 2035.

We work with a number of key partners to enable us to do that, for example the ESRI. We take on board its macroeconomic forecasts for the economy as a whole up to 2035 and what this data mean for individual sectors, such as the energy demand in homes, businesses, transport. We also work with other partners, including EirGrid, and look at the demand from data centres. We look at the game changers, which one cannot necessarily anticipate in a modelling exercise, and we have done that already in this round of forecasting that has not yet been published, but is being worked on. We work with the Departments, looking at Government policy and what we think will happen in terms of EVs and incorporating that into the modelling as well. It is a collaborative exercise that takes on board the input from all the players so that we can produce the best possible outlook for energy demand up to 2035. We will move further out as time goes on.

Our modelling enables us to look at where we are relative to the targets and the potential compliance costs were we to fall short of targets. In response to the question on compliance costs, we have shown that were we to miss our 16% renewable target, the potential compliance cost is between €65 million to €130 million for each percentage point below target. These are statistical transfers that mean we will be able to purchase that compliance from other member states that are over-achieving on their targets. That very wide range is there because that market does not exist at present and nobody knows what that compliance will cost. When it comes into existence in the market in the early 2020s, we will be able to see the trading and whether we need to avail of it.