Oireachtas Joint and Select Committees

Thursday, 19 January 2017

Joint Oireachtas Committee on Finance, Public Expenditure and Reform, and Taoiseach

Statement of Strategy 2017: Department of Finance

10:00 am

Mr. Derek Moran:

Regarding Mr. McCarthy's qualification of the models, a model specifies at a point in time a set of assumptions and rolls them out. These are the impacts in the absence of mitigating responses.

Those mitigants may well be in the form of the modified customs union, whatever that might be. We do not have an insight into that. Domestic responses might also be factors. The exposed sectors include traditional manufacturing, the food sector and agribusiness. The Government must decide all the time on responses. Modelled outcomes rarely come true but they are a guide to where one should be looking.

With regard to the examples of WTO tariffs, they are maxima. In the absence of a trade agreement, that is what they default to; they are the maximum amounts. The figures can be substantially below those, including down to zero.