Oireachtas Joint and Select Committees

Tuesday, 13 December 2016

Committee on Budgetary Oversight

Fiscal Assessment Report: Irish Fiscal Advisory Council

5:00 pm

Mr. Seamus Coffey:

I will take the part about the overall amount of money that may or may not be available. The fiscal rules have been in place for a number of years. For the past two years, we have seen measures introduced in each year of €3 billion or maybe even a little more even though the rules were in place. In 2015, it would have been a different part of the rules - the excessive deficit procedure. We have been under the rules this year for the first time and, because of some technical reclassification, there was a total of over €3 billion.

In terms of 2018 and the amount available for the budget to be announced next year, which Deputy Cullinane is looking at, it would not necessarily be the case that there is no money available. The Government spends close on €60 billion every year. If one wants to make a reallocation, there is plenty of money within there that can be changed around. Equally, we are not saying that there will be no increase in spending. The total - there are different measures - gross fiscal space for 2018 would be approximately €1.8 billion. It is merely in terms of where is that allocated. The Government itself has already allocated €600 million for existing pre-commitments such as the Lansdowne Road agreement and its estimation of demographic pressures. Because of budget 2017, a further €600 million goes because some of the spending measures that were introduced in the budget will now be over 12 months rather than nine months. Some of the increases in social welfare, which begin in March, must be paid in 2018 over a full year. That is extra spending into the economy that has been announced this year but it will be additional spending in 2018. Finally, our estimation is that to stand still - to do what we are doing now - and to maintain social welfare in line with expected inflation and maintain the real level of services across different sectors will absorb a further €600 million. It is not the case that there is no money there. In a sense, it is just how it is allocated. There is €1.8 million of spending, either through existing pre-commitments, through standing still or paying for the measures announced in this year's budget. Equally, if the Government wishes to spend more, it can introduce its own discretionary tax measures and then there would be additional funds available.

In terms of the rules limiting spending, the rules intend to limit spending in the sense of the impact it has on the deficit. The fiscal rules apply for all countries of the eurozone and most countries of the EU, and they have various different levels of Government spending, from those high-tax high-spending countries - perhaps in Scandinavia - to lower tax low-spending countries. In rough terms the limits are, by and large, a choice but it is about ensuring that one does not get this push for additional deficits that can lead to problems.

Dr. Conefrey will take the question of why the €600 million difference arises.