Oireachtas Joint and Select Committees

Thursday, 1 December 2016

Joint Oireachtas Committee on Finance, Public Expenditure and Reform, and Taoiseach

Banking Sector in Ireland: Ulster Bank

9:30 am

Mr. Gerry Mallon:

I am not privy to the detail of the discussion between RBS, the Treasury and various other areas. However, our chief executive and our chairman are very prominent and are well connected in UK business circles. I know our chairman, in particular has talked privately and publicly about the discussions he has had, particularly on the future of the financial services industry and the passporting rights for banks around Europe with a focus on the City of London and the impact of what a disconnect would be on the broader UK economy. I guess there would be ripple effects for all of us, were the UK economy to be in a difficult position.

On a more positive side, the Irish economy was in pretty strong growth mode prior to the Brexit vote, so there is a buffer. We may suffer some decline in our growth rate but we start from a relative position of strength. To the extent that a hard Brexit isolates the UK to some extent from the rest of Europe, I think the consequence would be a flow of investment that would have gone to the UK coming to other parts of Europe, including Ireland. The harder the Brexit the more upside Ireland is likely to see in relation to FDI in particular that may otherwise have gone to the UK. I think there is a net loss of confidence. There is greater uncertainty and that causes a deferral of investment or investment not to happen, that reduces economic growth. It is not good for us, it is not good for our economy. The net impact of Brexit or even the decision of the Brexit vote is not beneficial for the Irish economy in the short to medium term.