Oireachtas Joint and Select Committees

Tuesday, 22 November 2016

Committee on Budgetary Oversight

Post-Budget Analysis: European Anti Poverty Network

5:00 pm

Mr. Paul Ginnell:

Yes, it will bring us up to 2015, so we will still be a year behind. It is slightly complex but in terms of looking at Ireland's income data, it is a business survey so it also surveys people. It literally interviews people as part of the survey. A lot of the information is based on the data from the Department of Social Protection and the Revenue Commissioners in terms of looking at Ireland's income levels. The CSO has to get all the data first and it then puts the survey interviews through the system as well. It tries to get it as early in the year as it can. October and November is the earliest time it can have it. The 2015 data should be available soon, I hope. They will be delayed.

In terms of my sense of direction, what we see in the graph will be continued. The first item is material deprivation which comprises 11 basic items that people need to have. If people are lacking two of the 11 basic items, such as a certain amount of food, clothing, footwear, certain social life and so on, they are suffering material deprivation. That will fall as incomes have risen more generally. I think many people who were experiencing material deprivation, and it was more than 30% of the population, are now in work. As incomes begin to rise across the board, including from social transfers but also from work, I would expect that to continue to fall.

The second heading is "at risk of poverty", and that blue line is the poverty line. As incomes rise, the threshold which is currently €209 per week is likely to increase.

It is possible that the number of people falling below the line will increase as well. That is unknown but it is possible that there will be an increase.

The consistent poverty line is next. This is what the Government has targeted for reduction. It is based on people who have experienced both types of poverty. People who suffer from material deprivation and who are below the poverty line are deemed to be in consistent poverty. That is an unknown factor. It is a question of who experiences both types. The figures are based on the survey. It is difficult to know. The numbers could fall further. They are likely to fall somewhat because the at-risk-of-poverty line is likely to increase while material deprivation is falling. The cross-over of the two variables is unknown but I expect that it would fall somewhat.