Mr. Dan O'Brien:

I thank the Senator. I will address two issues. I will admit that I have not thought about the Common Fisheries Policy, so I cannot comment on it. Regarding jobs, something that does not get enough attention is the question of small and medium-sized British companies of 200 or 300 people that export into the EU. They are a potential target and may wish to move a part of their operations into the EU. There tends to be a major focus on finance and the large multinationals that we have traditionally got, but there is a considerable opportunity in respect of small to medium-sized export-focused British companies that depend on the EU market, in that they will be interested in jumping over barriers, avoiding customs problems and moving. A British company that is not a multinational already will not be used to working in another country, so coming to a common law jurisdiction where English is spoken would be particularly attractive to a 200-person British company. Even more than the Netherlands, Ireland is by far the most obvious place.

On a slightly less negative note, the WTO mechanism has a liberalisation bias. One can unilaterally cut tariffs, but one cannot unilaterally increase them. In the 1830s and the early days of the industrial revolution, Britain decided to opt for a cheap food policy. At the time, there was a large debate in Britain about what it should do with tariffs. It went down the cheap food route. Dr. Lawless discussed how high the tariffs could be, but it could also go the other way and Britain might decide to opt for a cheap food policy and cut tariffs for everyone. There would be many complexities involved in reaching that point, but if Britain leaves the customs union when it leaves the Single Market, which seems likely, it will be in a position to reduce tariffs on goods and services unilaterally. In particular, it could choose a cheap food policy as a way of mitigating the other costs of Brexit. The cost of New Zealand dairy and Latin American meat relative to the prices in Europe is much lower. That would pose an even greater, perhaps even existential - it is an overused word - challenge to the food industry in Ireland, given the importance to it of the UK market. It could present an even larger risk.