Mr. Niall Cody:

In the 2016 survey, 12% are illegal and 6% are legally brought in by people who go on holiday in the Single Market. The figure for 2015 was 11% but it has stayed between 11% and 12% for the past few years. There is a constant battle between ourselves and the UK to have the highest-priced cigarettes and with the way sterling has gone we are probably first again. The projected figures in the past couple of years, when there was a 50 cent increase, were met and we are confident that the forecast of a €65 million increase, arising from the rise in tobacco duty in this budget, is robust. Obviously, the incentive to smuggle is increased and in 2007 and 2008, when I had responsibility for policy in indirect taxes, we would have been more comfortable with 20 cent or 30 cent increases. That was 20 cent or 30 cent out of €7 or €8, however, whereas now it is 50 cent out of €10 or €11. In other words, 50 cent is starting to become the new 20 cent. There are health considerations too, of course.