Dr. Lorna Gold:

That brings us back to the impact on developing countries and the relationship between the TTIP agreement and poverty reduction following Deputy Anthony Lawlor's comments. The challenge presented by climate change trumps this discussion.

We have to recognise that, unless we have State capacity to mitigate climate change, we will see a reduction in yields of up to 50% globally by the end of the century. We have to recognise that fact and the capacity for State action must trump it. There is a whole series of changes within the existing policy frameworks that need to happen urgently in order to address climate change. This applies to Europe, the US and developing countries.

TTIP is about us trading with the US and the US trading with us. To return to Deputy Tóibín's initial question on the impact on third countries, a full analysis on the potential direct impact in terms of trade diversion does not exist but we know that it will have a negative impact on developing countries. There will not be a massive increase, as predicted in some reports, but there is an obligation on the EU under the Lisbon treaty to carry out a full analysis on policy coherence and on how third countries will be impacted. This has not been done although a limited study, which looks at labour standards, has been carried out.

Investor-state dispute settlements already exist in bilateral trade and investment agreements and given it would cover 40% of world trade, it is predicted the TTIP system will universalise this kind of trade agreement. If this happens, it will set a precedent and there will be a serious risk, alongside the risk of climate change, to the capacity of developing countries to produce their own food. Some 50% of food produced globally is produced by small holders, yet TTIP will place an unprecedented advantage in the hands of multinational corporations. They already have a very strong advantage globally within the world food system and this will only serve to increase their monopoly in it.

There will be a further impact. It will not have a direct impact on the food system but an impact on the capacity of the least developed countries to bring in other public financial flows. Therefore, there will also be an acceptance of a TTIP-style trade liberalisation which will be seen as a condition for aid and other sources of finance and investment coming into those countries. It will also have a spiral effect on the capacity of those third countries to set environmental and social standards. From our perspective in Trócaire, we see this as a serious concern and one on which we will do further work in the coming months and year.