Dr. Andrew Cromie:

The question has come up a number of times as to why there was an increase to 60% from the 15% last year. This change has a strong scientific basis and I will now elaborate on the science behind it. Last year, the scheme was based on an atypical 20-cow herd and we would have genotyped three cows and a stock bull. That was done with the objective of collecting the relevant data under which to develop the genomic prediction equations. The scheme for 2015 to 2020 is all about rolling out genomics to the industry. It is new technology that integrates both the pedigree information, which is what we would have used conventionally in cattle breeding in the past, and the data collected with additional DNA data.

I will try to provide a sense of the potential value of the DNA data. In the dairying sector, genomics have been rolled out since 2009 and this year about 65% of all of the AI or dairy semen that was used by farmers was from young genomic bulls. The consequential effect of genomics has been to double the rate of genetic gain. Mr. Coughlan alluded earlier to the fact that the ICBF is all about genetic gain. Therefore, when people ask why there has been a big increase in the level of genotyping, it is with the clear objective of increasing the level of genetic gain, because we know that with the use of the DNA data, we can double the rate of genetic gain that can be achieved within a relevant population, the relevant population in this case being suckler cows.

I will give a specific example of what I am talking about in terms of the potential of the science. The research work is being done in conjunction with Dr. Donagh Berry of Teagasc and we are working our way through the research work currently, taking the 2014 data to develop the genomic predictions. The work we have done to date indicates the value of the DNA, in the context of getting a handle on a trait such as female fertility, a trait that has very low heritability. In other words, it is a trait that is difficult to breed for. With the additional DNA data, we can predict with a level of accuracy, on a young calf, a bull or heifer calf, at three or four days of age, the equivalent of that animal having 70 calvings through the use of the DNA data. Therefore, it is like looking at that calf, but at having 70 calving intervals on that animal, based on the knowledge from its DNA. We can take a hair sample, look at its DNA and then use the research work done last year to develop the genomic prediction equations from known patterns in the training population. In terms of the DNA from the training population, we know that whenever we see these patterns within the animal's DNA, that conveys, for example in this case, more fertility. In the context of female fertility, a trait such as that is the sort of level of gain we want.

This knowledge is critical, because calving interval is currently at 415 days in the suckler herd and going in the wrong direction. Calves per cow per year, a very relevant female fertility trait, is at 0.79 calves per cow per year, and going in the wrong direction. It is that increase in accuracy of our ability to identify the more profitable animals that the DNA brings. It gives us the logic or scientific reasoning behind why we now want to take the research and apply it widely to all candidate animals. As Mr. Coughlan highlighted, all candidate animals are the potential females being born in the scheme herds. Every year, the average size of the scheme herds is approximately 20 cows and on average eight or nine heifer calves are born. Our goal is to genotype all of those heifer calves on an annual basis. There are additional benefits in this from an operational perspective in that we move to a system where, with tissue tagging at birth - we already mentioned BVD in that context - there is the opportunity to tag the animal, take the tissue and generate the genomic evaluation on all of those calves at birth. Therefore, from an operational or procedural perspective, there are many additional benefits to the farmer.

However, our goal there is to identify quickly and at an early stage the most profitable calves for the farmer. Therefore, if he has eight or nine calves, we can say at that stage, for example, that five, eight or nine are eligible for the scheme. In some cases, none will be eligible. We accept that and this is part of the replacement strategy discussion.