Oireachtas Joint and Select Committees
Wednesday, 1 July 2015
Committee of Inquiry into the Banking Crisis
Nexus Phase
Ms Ann Nolan:
I think there's a few things you have to think about in this and it's something I've thought about quite a bit over the period since. I ... it's not a question of whether they were lying or not. First of all, the question is whether they knew themselves what their position was at the time. There is a question of what their position was at one point in time and the fact that the things deteriorated. I mean the drop in GDP in Ireland in 2009 was phenomenal. I don't think anyone at the end of 2008, which is the point where this is taking part, had any idea the extent to which the recession would be so deep as it was, particularly in 2009-2010. So, therefore, I think the capital needs grew over that period and so even if they were right in 2008 as to what they needed at that point, that point was not even allowing for what was envisaged as so-called stress tests wasn't sufficient when the actual stress was so much bigger than they were testing for. So I don't think there was a question of they told ... you know, in 2008 if somebody had walked into this committee and said, ''By the way, AIB need €20 billion'', everyone would just simply have said, ''You're mad; you can't possibly think AIB needs €20 billion'", you know, because there was no ... there was no facts on which to base such an idea. So I don't think it's a question that they lied, that they knew they needed the €20 billion and lied to us. I think it's a question that they didn't think they needed and, at that time, they didn't really need it. It was later they needed it.