Oireachtas Joint and Select Committees
Wednesday, 24 June 2015
Committee of Inquiry into the Banking Crisis
Nexus Phase
John Paul Phelan (Carlow-Kilkenny, Fine Gael)
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Now I want to turn to the ESRI quarterly commentary from the summer of 2007. It was referred to in the Honohan report, I think page 84. Morgan Kelly, in an article which was published in it, argued that most house price surges had ended in a fall of at least 50% in values. Furthermore, he went on to say there had been no quantitative, analytical evidence provided from the Central Bank, I think, at the time and there was a reference made to "The central scenario is, therefore, for a soft landing." I think Senator Barrett has already touched on it. To your recollection, what were the reasons for the Department of Finance in agreeing with the Central Bank in favouring a soft landing scenario for the property market over a hard landing?