Oireachtas Joint and Select Committees

Wednesday, 17 June 2015

Committee of Inquiry into the Banking Crisis

Nexus Phase

Mr. Tom Considine:

Well, in ... you know, just to take ... I mean, some people say, in particular, that, you know, at the end of 2005, you know, it should have been clear that some kind of action should be taken. Now, the ... in the ... the middle two quarters of 2005, that's from April to September, say, there was a general view that the housing market was coming off the top. But, as ... and you can see that reflected in the actual stability report. But, once the fourth quarter began, doubts began to emerge about that. And I've seen that repeated in ... in different papers from different organisations. So, when it came to producing the 2005 stability report, the view was that the growth in population, the huge numbers additional at work, the rise in the prosperity of the country, and so on, explained an awful lot of the increase in property prices. That is, you know, that is, I think, the reason why, you know, there was an acceptance that a soft landing. Now, if you go to the OECD report which went into this in great depth, it was done in March 2006, and they are one of the few people actually who defined what a soft landing is and they say quite clearly that the most likely thing to happen is that prices will stabilise and stay that ... and stagnate for a number of years.