Oireachtas Joint and Select Committees

Thursday, 30 April 2015

Committee of Inquiry into the Banking Crisis

Nexus Phase

Mr. Brian Goggin:

Yes, you're absolutely quite right, Chairman. I mean, the single biggest risk factor in lending for residential mortgages is employment. That is the ultimate determinant of whether a person gets into arrears or not. It's not about the value of the property. It's not about whether it's positive equity or negative equity. It's about persons' earnings and the continuity of those earnings. Yes, we ran various scenarios showing unemployment rising. I think some of the hypothetical stress tests that were ... came in from the Central Bank in '06 and '07 had unemployment numbers running up to 8% and 9%, but at those levels they were well within our tolerance and capacity to absorb.