Oireachtas Joint and Select Committees

Thursday, 2 April 2015

Committee of Inquiry into the Banking Crisis

Context Phase

Mr. John Moran:

It was historical research with regard to the commercial real estate market not with regard to the housing market. I have made it abundantly clear that we are not experts in the residential property market. What Morgan Kelly was talking about was the housing market. Our research relates to property data relating to what happened in the commercial real estate market, namely, how many offices are occupied in a year, how many retail units are occupied in a year, and what pricing has taken place. We also said in Q1 2007 that we had concerns over the state of the residential market. At the time we actually saw developers seeking change of use from residential to commercial opportunities. Effectively, we anticipated price drops. I think I have said that. We anticipated price drops of between 5% and 15%. We certainly did not anticipate price drops of 70% for commercial property and 90% for development land.