Oireachtas Joint and Select Committees

Wednesday, 4 March 2015

Committee of Inquiry into the Banking Crisis

Context Phase

Professor Alan Ahearne:

In retrospect, that is a very risky source of funds. It means that a large chunk of tax revenue will only come in if the bubble keeps going.

At the time, perhaps in 2006-07, I talked about Norway, which had huge budget surpluses. This is, of course, because the country has oil and is squirrelling away all the oil revenues. The oil will eventually run out in 50 years or so, and revenues are therefore being squirrelled away. I said at the time that if one has a temporary source of revenue, it is a good idea to squirrel it away and not spend it. In retrospect, that did not happen in Ireland. There was a temporary source of revenue, the one to which the Senator referred, but it was spent because it was given out in higher public sector pay, welfare payments and Government expenditure. When the bubble burst the revenues disappeared but the expenditure remained, and fiscal adjustment was required.