Oireachtas Joint and Select Committees

Wednesday, 25 February 2015

Committee of Inquiry into the Banking Crisis

Context Phase

Professor Gregory Connor:

Yes. Keep in mind that for a blanket liability guarantee, you only need a credible risk of insolvency so they did not need to know, as I have stated and as Professor Honohan has stated. With hindsight, it is completely clear they were insolvent but you only need a credible high risk of insolvency for a bank liability decision to be clearly wrong. I think it was obvious to any thoughtful analyst when the blanket liability guarantee was given that, in fact, two of the banks were either insolvent or were highly probably insolvent. There was a high probability that they were insolvent. I think that was fairly obvious, even with the poor information provided by those banks. Just by looking at their sets of accounts and the enormous exposure to property development lending and their need to roll-over liabilities, which are in a frozen global interbank borrowing market, they were in deep trouble.