Mr. Fabian Zuleeg:

A UK exit would result in a rebalancing of the system, but it is clear that some of the major problems in the European Union are related to a lack of trust between member states. A UK exit would not change anything in that respect, as we would still be stuck in a number of areas of decision making. That issue will not be resolved either by the United Kingdom leaving or staying in the European Union.

There is an important lesson to be learned from the Scottish referendum. Simply arguing that people should fear uncertainty and the economic impact of being outside a union is not enough to change hearts and minds. While it may win the vote in the immediate term, the longer term issues will remain. I expect we would still have the same issues in the case of a UK exit from the European Union. This is not just a UK issue but a question of what kind of future we foresee for the European Union and what we want to do together at European level and in which areas it is absolutely necessary for the European Union to work together. This is one of the reasons we have not seen the types of reform which might be presented as a package for the United Kingdom. Part of the reason is that the United Kingdom has always been a special case. Some countries are more equal than others and the fact that the United Kingdom has always had the threat of exit has meant that it has been far more easily accommodated in terms of opt-outs, etc.

The larger question is that we do not have agreement across Europe on the direction the European Union should take. We do not have a common vision on a way forward for 27 or 28 countries. Unfortunately, whether the United Kingdom is in or out, this is not going to change, but it is something we must address. Perhaps not in a particularly positive way, but the debate on a Brexit might finally force us to face some of the questions about what kind of European Union we want for the future.