Mr. Colm McCarthy:

There are many such nuts-and-bolts problems that will have to be addressed. They will arise in the negotiations if the Conservatives win the election prior to the referendum. So if we did not get involved prior to the referendum, the game could be over by the time the referendum got carried in the sense that commitments would have been made about some of these things.

The big European countries, particularly France and Germany, will go to some lengths to try to keep the United Kingdom in. Everybody knows it would be an extraordinary blow to the Union if one of the three big countries were to leave. Many efforts will be made to try to meet whatever grievances they may feel they have.

The Chairman asked if other countries would follow if the United Kingdom were to leave. I cannot think of one that wants to. Certainly euroscepticism is pretty strong in some parts of eastern Europe. Hungary for example is not as europhile a country as it used to be. There is some irritation with aspects of European policy.

The eurozone has a greater capacity to fracture European unity. Greece is the obvious example. Cyprus also feels it was badly done by and mistreated. There is some unhappiness in this country about things the ECB did and so on. The eurozone has the potential to be a source of political fragmentation in Europe, more so than the European Union itself.

I do not know of any country that is contemplating exit in the way the United Kingdom is. There are two major political parties in Britain - the Conservative Party is one of them. If one of the main political parties in the country is committed publicly to an "in or out" referendum, that is a pretty serious development. I do not think that is the case elsewhere. Even in France where the Front National is eurosceptic, it is talking about leaving the euro but not leaving the European Union - not at this stage anyway.