Professor Philip Lane:

First of all it is a sort of ongoing research. Essentially if one thinks about the world economy and where it is now compared to 1995, what fraction of world GDP is coming out of emerging Asia is a great deal higher. Asia had its crisis in 1997-98 and one of the consequences of that was that Asia essentially decided to take a cautious approach that they would be a big net saver, they would grow quickly but they would spend less and the surpluses out of Asia were a major reason interest rates in the US went down quite a bit. The low interest rate environment in the US was the source of a lot of funding for Europe. The big narrative for me is the financial implications of the rise of emerging Asia.