Pearse Doherty (Donegal South West, Sinn Fein)
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I start with the big question people want answered. What is the result of NAMA going to be at the end of the day? NAMA has looked at different options in terms of disposal and had them independently assessed, which I will come to in a minute. I was taken aback by the suggestion that at the end of this process, the profit NAMA will make will be in the region of €500 million. Can the witnesses talk me through some of the assumptions underlying that? NAMA has relied heavily on the fact that property prices have decreased since the valuation date on which NAMA was asked to acquire the loans in November 2009 but the witnesses will doubtless testify that the property prices in Dublin where 90% of the loans are secured - Dublin, Limerick, Cork - are back at 2009 levels or just 4% below for apartments and 5% below for all other properties. NAMA is nearly at the prices at which it was asked to buy the properties. I assume the witnesses will mention the fact that NAMA had to pay the additional €6 billion. However, NAMA has so far received €4.5 billion in rent from those properties which will be disposed of at par or above value. What are the assumptions the witnesses are using that suggest the profit will only be €500 million given that property prices have nearly reached the level at which the properties were purchased at and are expected to rise? Are they assuming there will be no property price rises? If so, can they provide the committee with the models they have used for a 5% rise, for example, over the next few years and what that would mean for State coffers?