Oireachtas Joint and Select Committees

Tuesday, 7 October 2014

Joint Oireachtas Committee on Finance, Public Expenditure and Reform

Budget 2015: Department of Finance

4:25 pm

Mr. John McCarthy:

Yes. That complicates things for those of us who are trying to understand how the economy works.

I return to the Chairman's specific point. We are in a situation where methodological changes have been incorporated in the past while which bring contracted manufacturing to the fore. We do not know how many companies are involved, but we suspect it is a handful and they are having a big impact. A number of economists, as well as the Central Bank's report last week, have taken the view that such activity overstates the level of GDP. We cannot go into firm specific developments, as we do not have the information from the CSO. As there are legal impediments to our accessing the data, we simply cannot do so, but our suspicion is that a very small number of companies engage in this type of activity. It is virtually impossible to forecast the figure because it would mean getting into firm specific developments. It is not like other companies where accounts might be easily visible and so forth. It is, therefore, very difficult to get a handle on the matter. Unfortunately, I cannot give any more information because I simply do not have it.