Oireachtas Joint and Select Committees

Tuesday, 7 October 2014

Joint Oireachtas Committee on Finance, Public Expenditure and Reform

Budget 2015: Department of Finance

4:15 pm

Mr. John McCarthy:

The nature of the sector is that it is a volatile sector anyway. Typically, investment is the most volatile component of GDP and building and construction would be included in the investment component. It is highly cyclical around a long-term trend. The cycle displays larger amplitude, in other words it is much more volatile than the regular economic cycle. The wavelength of the cycle is much longer. Therefore, it is possible to get longer peaks and troughs. Construction is a type of microcosm of that. Volatility within the sector is to be expected. What has probably been seen over the last couple of years is an over-correction in the construction sector. In the housing sector, Ireland went from producing 92,000 units per annum, which was completely unsustainable, to producing 8,000 units, which we now see is also unsustainable, as there are price increases in the sector. This is certainly the case in parts of the country where shortages are an issue. There are some obstacles in the sector that might help improve supply in the short-term. However, there are some policies underway to correct that. I will not dismiss it by saying it is normal. However, there is more volatility in some sectors than others.