Oireachtas Joint and Select Committees

Tuesday, 7 October 2014

Joint Oireachtas Committee on Finance, Public Expenditure and Reform

Budget 2015: Department of Finance

3:55 pm

Mr. John McCarthy:

Yes and no. That is the economist in me. If one looks at the July data, it was a poor month. However, a few of your colleagues have mentioned the contracted production issue. This is a very difficult concept to forecast. It is probably confined to four or five firms. It is firm specific. It is a very unusual phenomenon. We do not know if this is a cyclical issue or a one-off. We do not know if it will evaporate or whether it is a structural issue. In terms of forecasting that, we have taken the view it is better to err on the side of prudence. That is justified on the basis - if one considers how this operates - this does not generate one additional job. The jobs are generated in country A which is producing the widgets or whatever is being produced. It does not have any impact on the employment levels in Ireland.