Mr. John McCarthy:

Implicit in our numbers is some moderation in the second half of the year. When one looks at the figures for the first half of the year, they are up 10% year over year. We are projecting 8.3% for the year as a whole. Implied in that would be export growth of the order of 6% in the second half of the year. In terms of the evidence that supports that, we have some weaknesses that became evident over the summer. For instance, the figures contained in the merchandise trade data, which are published every month, are down 10% year over year in July. Interestingly, there has been a very large increase -12% - in imports in July. Therefore, the contribution of net exports may be weak over the summer. That is one of the factors underpinning an assumed deceleration in the second half of the year. The other issue would be related to trading partner growth. In Q2, and to a lesser extent in Q1, our exports were able to decouple somewhat from what was going on in the Euro area. It is difficult to make the assumption that you can get a permanent decoupling. We have implied in the numbers that the weakness in the Euro area will have some impact on the export numbers. It is still strong growth in the order of 6%. However, it is not the sort of figures we saw in the first half of the year.