Oireachtas Joint and Select Committees
Tuesday, 7 October 2014
Joint Oireachtas Committee on Finance, Public Expenditure and Reform
Budget 2015: Department of Finance
3:55 pm
Mr. John McCarthy:
Yes. We have included a sensitivity analysis in our stability programme. We use the ESRI HERMES model. Various shocks are simulated. We do not do it for specific countries. The impact of lower global GDP is simulated. It is broader than the UK and the US. It shows that the elasticity of Irish GDP to world GDP is 1. If there was a 1% reduction in world growth, that more or less feeds through 1:1 to a lower Irish growth. The reason for that is seen in the export channel and, to a lesser extent, in the inward investment channel.