Mr. Sebastian Barnes:

In assessing risks we must look at the forecasts, and many of the factors the Deputy mentioned are built into those forecasts. The Department of Finance's budget projections are assuming that growth will pick up, which is consistent with what Forbes is saying and the positive employment figures. In fact, the increase in employment we have seen is faster than what was indicated in the forecasts. That is the central case. To get to a particular number for the public finances, which is what this exercise is about, the probability of reaching 3% in 2015 also depends on what is assumed for the public finances. Based on what was in the budget, which featured a scaling back on the amount of consolidation, it is less likely that the target will be achieved by a significant amount. That is what we have expressed here.

There are other risks to take into account, as well as some of the positives that have been pointed out. It might be the case, for example, that Central Bank income is higher than assumed or something like that. There are margins of adjustment. On the other hand, the control of health expenditure might be worse next year than anticipated.