Oireachtas Joint and Select Committees

Thursday, 5 December 2013

Joint Oireachtas Committee on Finance, Public Expenditure and Reform

Fiscal Assessment Report November 2013: Discussion with Irish Fiscal Advisory Council

2:05 pm

Photo of Dara MurphyDara Murphy (Cork North Central, Fine Gael)
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I have some brief questions to kick off the discussion before I bring in my colleagues. This is the first time the council has engaged in the endorsement process. I note from the timelines that there was some engagement between the council and the Department about the consumption estimates. Given that this is the first time, does the council have any suggestions or proposals to further develop the relationship between the council and the Department in the process running up to the budget? In particular, can the council indicate what and how the clarification was arrived at which allowed it to endorse the consumption figures and other figures? Professor McHale referred to the endorsable range, which has come up with respect to many elements, especially the €2.5 billion and €3.1 billion adjustment proposals. Has the council done any modelling on the endorsable range? Is it a proportion or a percentage? Is there a colouring within the range? Can the council give us some clarification on that?

Will the council comment on some of the indicators that we have seen recently and the impact they may have in 2014, especially the strong growth in employment and how it may affect demand as well as the forecast growth of 2% for 2014? What about house prices? There has been some commentary to the effect that the strengthening of house prices may positively affect some of the contingent liability concerns with respect to the banks. What is Professor McHale's view?