Oireachtas Joint and Select Committees

Thursday, 5 December 2013

Joint Oireachtas Committee on Finance, Public Expenditure and Reform

Fiscal Assessment Report November 2013: Discussion with Irish Fiscal Advisory Council

4:05 pm

Mr. Sebastian Barnes:

There is consistency in that sense because we are already taking those effects into account. However, growth does not increase on a one for one basis for easing back on fiscal consolidation. The metrics around one third versus half are based on the uncertainty about GDP and everything working out mechanically in respect of the budgetary projection. Of course, if that happened there might be a policy response which would be taken into account, or money might be found through the Bank of Ireland or other routes. It is not allowing for that but it is saying that extra would be needed. An important question in regard to growth is why it might be weak. If it is because the recession, as a cyclical factor in the euro area, gets worse, it will delay sorting things out and make them worse in the transitory sense but we will get there eventually once the cycle turns back. However, if it turns out that the underlying economy in Ireland is permanently weaker than we think, it means we are in a worse state and the trade-offs will be worse. We hope we are not in that world.