Oireachtas Joint and Select Committees

Thursday, 5 December 2013

Joint Oireachtas Committee on Finance, Public Expenditure and Reform

Fiscal Assessment Report November 2013: Discussion with Irish Fiscal Advisory Council

3:55 pm

Photo of Kieran O'DonnellKieran O'Donnell (Limerick City, Fine Gael)
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I have two quick questions. The council has reduced its assessment of the likelihood of Ireland breaching the 3% debt-to-GDP target by 2015 from one in three to one in two. Where does the council see the possibility of reaching the growth target of 2% for 2014? Did it put a physical measure on that? In respect of the analysis of the forecasts, did the council factor in the patent cliff and the question of how GDP is now being measured? Is there a possibility that the methodology used to measure GDP is flawed? It has a huge impact because growth determines everything for us as a country, particularly when we are on the trajectory of coming out and meeting targets. Growth is the key factor on every level in terms of how the bond markets look at us and meeting the 3% debt-to-GDP target. I am asking a technical question in terms of how growthless jobs are being measured because historically there was always a lag behind the growth in GDP with jobs coming on stream? We now find the opposite is true but we are finding that they are real jobs and there is growth. I suspect this growth in jobs is not applying where an economy is in negative growth. I suspect it always happens in a situation where there is some form of growth so is the measure flawed?

Could the witnesses give me a physical measure such as one in three in respect of reaching the 2% growth target? The witnesses mentioned credit.

Do the witnesses believe the banks are lending to SMEs?