Dr. Donal Donovan:

I would like to add one comment in response to the Deputy's question. There is always a problem macroeconomic forecasters have when trying to assess a turning point. When one is in a recession and especially a balance sheet recession, an awful lot depends on the return of confidence. It is not possible to predict with any degree of confidence, no matter how great a statistician one is, when the turning point will come. If we consider what has happened historically, typically, a turning point comes but it may not be six months from now, it may be a little later, who knows, but when it does turn around, typically, the turnaround then proceeds at a faster rate than people had expected it would. We have had this perennial problem through the decades of not knowing the timing and underestimating the extent of the turning point.