Oireachtas Joint and Select Committees

Tuesday, 8 October 2013

Joint Oireachtas Committee on Finance, Public Expenditure and Reform

Macroeconomic Forecasting: Discussion with Department of Finance

8:10 pm

Mr. John McCarthy:

On the Deputy's first question, I think he is correct. On a regional basis, rents in the urban areas have been quite strong for some time, perhaps as a result of what the Deputy termed the pent-up demand. We do not produce forecasts on a regional basis as they are based on the economy as a whole. We simply do not have up-to-date regional GDP data. The latest data is from 2010. We look at the economy as a whole. We implicitly try to take into account in our forecasts any developments in the mortgage market. However, it is a case of stop versus flow variable. GDP is a flow concept and therefore, my house does not feature in GDP because has already been built. It featured in GDP back in the mid-1990s. From a forecasting and macro perspective we are only trying to gauge the likely new house build. If there were issues in terms of arrears and repossessions then we would try to feed them in through that channel. It is very implicit; it is not something we explicitly model.