Oireachtas Joint and Select Committees

Tuesday, 8 October 2013

Joint Oireachtas Committee on Finance, Public Expenditure and Reform

Macroeconomic Forecasting: Discussion with Department of Finance

8:00 pm

Mr. John McCarthy:

Investment has two aggregate components, one of which is building and construction investment; the other is investment in machinery and equipment. In the agricultural sector, this means buying tractors and harvesters. The Chairman is right to draw attention to it because the figure jumps out as a large increase. The main source of the increase is linked to the law of small numbers. For example, new house building is down to such a low level, something like 5,000 units for this year, that if it increases to 6,000 units for next year, which is not a huge absolute increase, it amounts to an increase of 20%. The level is so small that percentage changes become large.