Oireachtas Joint and Select Committees

Tuesday, 8 October 2013

Joint Oireachtas Committee on Finance, Public Expenditure and Reform

Macroeconomic Forecasting: Discussion with Department of Finance

7:50 pm

Photo of Richard Boyd BarrettRichard Boyd Barrett (Dún Laoghaire, People Before Profit Alliance)
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There are some oddities to the analysis we have heard, as referred to by other speakers. To follow on from the last point, the Fiscal Advisory Council, in its earlier reports - although, perhaps significantly, not in its most recent one - included an interesting graph which showed that if growth were to turn out 1% less or 1% greater than projected, the adjustment necessary to meet the deficit targets would be very significantly higher or lower. As I recall, the difference was in the order of €1 billion per year. We have not met the growth forecasts for this year, the difference being approximately 1%. According to those earlier tables from the Fiscal Advisory Council, this could have very serious implications for the level of adjustment that might be required in future years. Can Mr. McCarthy explain why this is not being reflected in the Department's analysis? Surely there must be an impact if the growth forecasts are not met.

We used to hear a great deal of talk about jobless growth. Now it seems we have growthless jobs, which is an interesting anomaly that requires significant scrutiny. Are there issues in regard to the method of counting or defining unemployment? Are people on internships and back to work schemes, for example, counted as unemployed?