Oireachtas Joint and Select Committees

Tuesday, 8 October 2013

Joint Oireachtas Committee on Finance, Public Expenditure and Reform

Macroeconomic Forecasting: Discussion with Department of Finance

7:40 pm

Mr. John McCarthy:

So I understand. There can be differences on a year to year basis between the elasticities in terms of what happens to GDP and tax revenue. Tax revenue is pretty much on target up to end September in spite of the fact that GDP growth has been very weak. I mentioned the 101 other moving parts.

Unfortunately, it is not as simple as looking at the GDP figure and extrapolating out what it might mean for the deficit target. All I can say on that front is, as per end-September, we are on track in terms of revenue and slightly behind, if I recall correctly, on spending, although that is a profiling or timing issue. In other words, things look to be on track on the Exchequer side.