Oireachtas Joint and Select Committees
Tuesday, 8 October 2013
Joint Oireachtas Committee on Finance, Public Expenditure and Reform
Macroeconomic Forecasting: Discussion with Department of Finance
7:40 pm
Mr. John McCarthy:
It would depend on the type of consolidation. I will try to give the Deputy some figures that I stress are purely hypothetical. I do not know whether the figure is €2.5 billion, which would be €600 million lower than the €3.1 billion figure in this hypothetical case. That €600 million amounts to, roughly speaking, 0.3% or 0.4% of GDP. In terms of the impact on the economy one looks at what is called the multiplier effect, the impact on GDP of a 1% change in policy. If consolidation was 0.4% lower, applying what I stress is a central estimate differs in terms of the consolidation instruments but a reasonable central estimate would be 0.4% or 0.5%. Then one would be looking at growth being 0.2% or thereabouts stronger than would otherwise be the case. Again I stress this depends on whether the lower consolidation should be done. That would be a central estimate and it would be difficult to disagree with it at this point without additional information. The answer is "Yes".