Oireachtas Joint and Select Committees

Tuesday, 8 October 2013

Joint Oireachtas Committee on Finance, Public Expenditure and Reform

Macroeconomic Forecasting: Discussion with Department of Finance

7:30 pm

Mr. John McCarthy:

It is a puzzle. What we think is happening - nobody can be definitive on this - is that the patent cliff issue, which accounts for nearly one eighth of gross value added which is essentially GDP in the economy, is bringing down the overall GDP growth rate, but it does not really have an impact in the labour market because the labour share of that sector is so small. We believe we are also seeing a modest recovery in domestic demand since the second quarter. That is where one gets jobs. They come from retail spending. Building and construction are moving in the right direction.