Mr. Frank Daly:

The key issue the Deputy raises concerns the base case in 2010 versus where we are now and where we will be in 2020. There is also the issue of the mandating of income and the good management of and investment in the assets. The main factor that has made the difference between the €1 billion profit projection we made at the time of the base case and the current position where we believe we will repay all our senior debt is the way the market has changed. There was a 25% change in the market between 2009 and 2013 which we could not have forecasted. I do not believe anybody forecasted it and if one listens back to what was said at the beginning of that period, the view was optimistic. I would also like to be a little optimistic because if the market changed to such an extent during a downward spiral between 2009 and this year, it could also come back between now and 2020.

The board must be very realistic. We can only produce a strategic plan and make our projections based on what we know now. However, if there was a fair wind in the market between now and 2020, we could do more than just repay our senior debt. We could, for example, cover the sub-debt and perhaps return to a scenario where we would make a profit. We have to be realistic today, but we also have to acknowledge that, just as the market has gone down in recent years, it could also improve again in the coming years and bring us back to a more optimistic view.

From the Deputy's point of view - he is quite right to ask us about the difference between then and now - we are being realistic about what we see right now. The board must be realistic. Things could change, however, and we could come before the committee in two years to say the market had improved by 5% or whatever other figure, which would change the scenario. Every time we look at our strategic plan, engage in the exercise of impairment or make cashflow and disposal projections, we have to take account of what is happening in the market. We would be foolish if we were to write a strategic plan and develop a scenario and then decline to react to what was happening.