Dr. Frank McGovern:

I thank Mr. McCarthy and the Chairman. I shall briefly outline the roles of the EPA, the science behind our understanding of climate change, the challenges and solutions and some conclusions.

The EPA's role in climate change includes the provision of annual reports of Ireland’s greenhouse gas emissions by sector and removals by sink; national projections of emissions based on national and European policies and measures; implementation of the EU emissions trading scheme and other market mechanisms; the co-ordination and development of climate change research; provision of scientific and technical input and advice to the Department of Environment, Community and Local Government, other Departments and State agencies; informs policymakers, stakeholders and the public on environmental issues and solutions and promotes good environmental practices; and engages with EU and UN bodies dealing with climate change.

The key message on climate change which I wish to convey to the committee today is that climate change is real and poses a global and local threat for social, cultural and economic developments, and it will radically change Ireland's environment and economy. Global actions are needed to address the drivers of climate change and Ireland must play its part. A transition to a low-carbon climate-resilient economy is essential for Ireland and there are many benefits and opportunities in doing this. The policy development process needs to act now to address the challenges of meeting our 2020 emissions targets, as mentioned by Mr. McCarthy. There is need for a positive environmentally sustainable vision for Ireland that is underpinned by effective policies and measures and a dynamic implementation process, and a robust monitoring, reporting and verification system is required to support this.

The science is robust. Since the 1850s, we have understood the role of greenhouse gases in keeping the earth so warm. It was Carlow-born John Tyndall who worked out this and indicated why these gases, which are minor constituents in the atmosphere, are so important. These gases are now referred to as greenhouse gases, with carbon dioxide being the most important of them.

The more greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, the more energy is trapped. This potentially changes everything we have taken for granted about our environment and our climate. Currently, the atmospheric levels of greenhouse gases are higher than they have been in human history and higher than they have been for over 0.5 million years. We are outside any of the natural cycles that we have known in terms of these gases. The consequence of this is that ice melts, oceans warm up, sea level rises and weather patterns change, coastal lands flood, storms and rainfall become more intense, droughts are prolonged, heat waves are hotter and ecosystems change or disappear. It is a complex world and its climate system is complex, and Ireland needs to be prepared to meet the adaptation challenges, including dealing with extreme weather events.

There are two figures on one page of the presentation. The figure on the top right-hand side is recorded global temperatures from three sources: the United Kingdom Met Office, the National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration in the United States of America and NASA. The record goes back as far as 1850. Two facts are immediately apparent from the record. One is that it is highly variable in that there is much noise, in terms of the signal going up and down over short and longer time periods. There is obviously a strong trend. The trend has been that the global temperature is increasing, which the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, IPCC, in its last report, stated was unequivocal.

The data have been slightly rearranged in the lower chart in the presentation, only showing the hottest years, which are in red. All the hottest years have occurred in the first decade of this century or in the last decade of the last century. The driver of this temperature increase and other indicators such as loss of sea ice is the build-up of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. The graph in the presentation is complex, but it shows emissions of greenhouse gas or carbon dioxide to the atmosphere, represented by black dots, from 1980 to 2012; and then some emissions pathways for global emissions. The red pathway is the one that we are currently on. If we keep on this pathway, it brings the globe to a temperature increase, relative to pre-industrial levels, of between 4°C and 6°C. Many of the members will be aware of the World Bank report which indicated how catastrophic it would be for agricultural production and other human systems if we approach such temperatures. The next line shows a temperature warming of 2.6°C to 3.7°C. That would have major implications for the global climate systems. As Mr. McCarthy pointed out, the view of the United Nations and the European Union is that we should keep our temperature increase to below 2°C, and that is indicated by the blue line and the yellow line. We must fall in a pathway between those two lines if our temperature is to be kept below 2°C. That means that CO2 emissions must effectively go to zero before the end of this century. That is a global perspective. However, similar thinking in terms of CO2 must be considered here in Ireland.

The key challenge is that excess carbon dioxide in the atmosphere is recognised as the main driver of climate change but there are other important players. The two key sources of excess carbon dioxide are: fossil fuel use; and land use change and poor management of land and biomass. They contribute approximately 75% and 25%, respectively, of the excess carbon dioxide currently in the atmosphere.

The other key players are methane, nitrous oxide and industrial gases. Their sources include food production and a range of industrial processes. Methane and nitrous oxide are very important in terms of the Irish emissions inventory due to the size of the agricultural sector in Ireland. The key challenge is to break the link between energy and fossil carbon, to ensure that food production and land use is sustainable, and to not allow the release of powerful industrial greenhouse gases into the atmosphere.

For Ireland, there are immediate challenges. There is a great deal of information in the graph in the presentation. It shows the EPA projections of our emissions up to 2020, both with measures and with additional measures. The brown bars indicate the projections with existing measures and the yellow bars indicate them with additional measures. The committee will note that, according to the official EPA projections, in both scenarios Ireland will exceed what is allowed under the climate and energy package in 2016 or 2017 unless additional measures are taken on board. These additional measures are urgently required for Ireland to achieve its 2020 emissions target.

There are opportunities. There are major win-wins for society, the environment and the economy. High greenhouse gas emissions are an indicator of poor management and sub-optimal performance for many systems. The more greenhouse gases one produces, the less efficient and less profitable one is in one's business, farm and home.

Globally, non-fossil fuel energy sources can address our collective energy needs. Ireland has major renewable potential, including in wind, solar and biomass. Ireland's agricultural system is efficient but can be better. Good management of land, livestock and resource, including farm waste, is essential.

Sustainable management and approved resource use can increase returns. Targeted innovation, learning and research is essential at all levels and across Government to enable the required low-carbon transition in Ireland. We also need a vision, which can be that Ireland is a global leader in sustainability.

Climate change is real and poses a global and local threat for social, cultural and economic development, and it will radically change Ireland's environment and economy. Global actions are needed to address the drivers of climate change and Ireland must play its part.

A transition to a low carbon climate resilient economy is essential for Ireland. There are many benefits and opportunities in doing this. The policy development process needs to act now to address the challenges of meeting our 2020 emissions target. A positive environment sustainable vision for Ireland is needed, which is underpinned by effective policies and measures, a dynamic implementation process and robust monitoring, reporting and verifications systems.