Oireachtas Joint and Select Committees

Wednesday, 24 April 2013

Joint Oireachtas Committee on Finance, Public Expenditure and Reform

Fiscal Assessment Report 2013: Discussion with Irish Fiscal Advisory Council

3:40 pm

Deputy Steven S. Donnelly:

I welcome the witnesses and thank them for giving us their time and expertise today. Deputy Spring asked about the end of austerity and I believe I heard 2015 mentioned. However, in 2015 we will still have a 2% or 3% deficit. The troika target is 3%, which is about €5 billion off. Someone in the Government press office obviously concocted a beautiful number suggesting that we are 80% of the way through the adjustment, which is of course nonsense. The 80% is based on an accounting adjustment in 2010 for the promissory notes. I believe Dr. Donovan correctly said we were at 7.5% having started at 11%, which indicates we are less than half way in getting the deficit back to zero. In 2015 we will still be at minus 3%. By 2015 we will have got from negative 11% to negative 3% and there is still €5 billion to go. Is it the view of the council - or some of its members - that by 2015 there is a rationale that being at negative 3% debt to GDP would signal the end of austerity?