Oireachtas Joint and Select Committees

Wednesday, 24 April 2013

Joint Oireachtas Committee on Finance, Public Expenditure and Reform

Fiscal Assessment Report 2013: Discussion with Irish Fiscal Advisory Council

3:30 pm

Mr. Sebastian Barnes:

To the extent that the kind of good news that might come from the ECB is good news must be seen in the context that they are only acting because things are worse in the euro area than expected. At best, it will only be a partial response to the problem. It is a serious concern that one of the downside risks going forward is that not enough will not be done in Europe and there will be stagnation in the eurozone as a whole in the coming years. That would be a difficult environment for Ireland to grow in. In some ways the OMT has been successful in reducing spreads but it has also let governments around Europe off the hook a little because markets do not respond to bad decisions in the way they used to. If members look at what happened with Cyprus or the spreads for Italy, despite the political events over the past few weeks, there has been little response to that in the markets because the OMT is holding everything together but that means some important decisions are not being taken because market pressure has eased. Hopefully, there will be good news from the ECB but it has to be seen in context.