Oireachtas Joint and Select Committees

Wednesday, 24 April 2013

Joint Oireachtas Committee on Finance, Public Expenditure and Reform

Fiscal Assessment Report 2013: Discussion with Irish Fiscal Advisory Council

3:00 pm

Mr. Sebastian Barnes:

I want to emphasise the uncertainty. The year 2015 is a long way away in terms of both the amount of consolidation that still needs to be done and all the things that can happen in the economy. If one wishes to look back the other way, three years ago it was before the Greek crisis had reached its pinnacle and kicked off in a serious way. So much has happened in the three years. Inevitably, it means that for planning horizons one needs to have an idea of where one is going but one must adjust a bit along the way. We have adjusted our advice in the light of that but this discussion is useful in terms of thinking hypothetically about what we might do in 2015. Honestly, none of us really has much of an idea of what 2015 will look like so we must have an open mind about exactly what we think we will be doing at that stage and we need to make progress along the way as well, given the massive uncertainties to which Professor McHale referred.