Ms Joanne Roche:

Yes. We have run some stresses on the migration assumption. These are set out in section 8 of the report. Having consulted the Central Statistics Office, CSO, in terms of what would be a sensible stress, we looked at plus 10% and minus 10% migration figures. We also looked at a zero migration scenario. The fund is not overly sensitive to migration, predominantly because of expenditure pressures on the pension owing to our ageing population.

Page 65 of the report indicates that in a zero migration scenario, where there is no net inward or outward migration, the shortfall on the fund is projected to be €29 billion, compared with €26 billion under the base scenario. Particularly in the later years of the project, the increase in the shortfall becomes more pronounced, as the contributions from the working group are missed, and migration is concentrated in the working-age population.