Oireachtas Joint and Select Committees

Thursday, 20 September 2012

Joint Oireachtas Committee on Education and Social Protection

Actuarial Review of the Social Insurance Fund: Discussion

10:40 am

Ms Joanne Roche:

Our assumptions are predominantly based on the 2012 ageing report commissioned at European level. The migration assumptions coincided with the assumptions as set out in table 6.6 of the report. The Deputy is correct that net outward migration at the start of the projection period of -22,000 in 2010 is assumed. During the course of our view, we checked the census figures to get a sense of the position in 2011, which were consistent with our assumptions. We have assumed that by 2020 there will be net inward migration of 22,500. As such, migration in 2015 will be nil.