Paschal Donohoe (Dublin Central, Fine Gael) | Oireachtas source

We found ourselves in a situation where if we were to test for higher than 10%, it would be very difficult for us to figure out when we should stop with scenarios. As we did more and more of those scenarios, it became harder and harder for us to understand what would be the sector-specific effects in our economy and what they would mean for the national performance of our economy overall. If we look at the 20% figure, it would have a very negative effect on our economy overall but there are particular sectors within our economy on which that effect would be even higher. As we get into those more extreme scenarios, we find it very difficult to forecast what the impact on a particular sector will be and what it would mean for our macro figures and macro forecasts.

When we were preparing the annual progress report, 10% was the figure President Trump had been talking about and most analysts were referring to. Obviously, everything has changed again since then.