Oireachtas Joint and Select Committees

Wednesday, 28 May 2025

Joint Oireachtas Committee on Finance, Public Expenditure, Public Service Reform and Digitalisation, and Taoiseach

Developments in the Economy in the Year to Date: Minister for Finance

2:00 am

Photo of Shay BrennanShay Brennan (Dublin Rathdown, Fianna Fail) | Oireachtas source

My last question is to do with scenarios. In the Minister's opening statement, he spoke about stress testing for a 10% tariff scenario and how that would reduce MDD by approximately 1.5 percentage points, taking it to just above 1%. I note he mentioned deliberately not testing for a 20% scenario, which is a likely tariff outcome, albeit one of the worst-case scenarios. Extrapolating from the figures given, such a scenario would initially take growth to a negative figure. Why did the Department not test for a 20% scenario?

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