Oireachtas Joint and Select Committees
Wednesday, 15 May 2024
Joint Oireachtas Committee on European Union Affairs
Recent Developments in the EU on Security and Defence: Discussion
Professor Ben Tonra:
I have one supplemental on the central eastern European question. Trump is transactional but that means he is transactional in all directions. In other words, if what he gets on the table from one party exceeds what he is getting from another party, he will shift. There is no principle there and there is nothing to rely on and that is what NATO has been built on because the NATO treaty itself is so weak. It relies on political credibility and resilience and if that is absent, then frankly NATO is no longer able to do the job that it was set up to do. On Ireland and the false paradise, in my written statement I was being polite but the short answer is absolutely "Yes" and that is a function of geography. It is a function of our history, of psychology and there are very good reasons for that but it is something that needs to be confronted and at least talked about and discussed.
That is the scale to which we are somewhat disconnected from the sense of urgency and threat that many of our EU partners feel. With respect to the military industrial complex, the Deputy is right. It is not a welcome development, but it is an inevitable development in the context in which we find ourselves and Ireland needs to situate itself within that. Yes, Ireland does not have military capacity that it can provide to Ukraine, but we do have 12 javelin missiles. We do have the ammunition that Ukraine requires. Although it would not make any kind of significant contribution, the psychology of Ireland saying to Ukraine that we think this is so important we are willing to do this would actually be enormous. I refer to that role of commentary and of doing something very small but which would have huge political impact and significance. It would make a difference, I think. Again, the political decisions in terms of the programme for Government are what they are.
Finally, on the UK, I think that is a really big issue. The various capitals are really struggling with it. We have this new formulation, the so-called European political committee, or community. I know the acronym but I do not know how to spell it out. It has not taken off. It is not working. It is one of Macron's big ideas, and he has so many big ideas it is hard to keep track. It has not taken off but it does need to happen. To be frank, it is only post the UK general election that we are going to see some serious traction and progress. I think the progress in that respect will be quite quick post UK general election. I think I have covered the points.
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